Hunt for the truth: Reasons for the decline of "TV Spot Achievement"
(2nd installment)

Last time we looked at the difference between the Program Average Rating and the Time Point Rating, as well as how to estimate the Purchase GRP and the Designated Week. That was basic level version.

This time, we would like to reveal the differences between the Purchased GRP and the Actual Achieved GRP (Time Point Rating basis), along with the reasons for their occurrence, in this Application Version.

Application Version (First part)

The Moved Spot Difference
As you may know, the timetable of a TV program can be unexpectedly changed due to extended sports programs or the insertion of news flashes, etc. So it follows that a spot may not be aired at the scheduled time, and could be aired later or moved to another spot, hence the term Moved Spot. (Spot movements may occur for other than the above reasons)

As we saw last time, the rating used for spot purchases is estimated based on the timetable scheduled by each station at the time the estimate is made. That means, when the original time frame is changed, the estimated value (≠cost) that was calculated utilizing the time frame will be technically meaningless. However, even if a moved spot is found, the estimated value will never differ.

Of course the case may be where the spot is moved to a more efficient slot than the purchased one, and that results in positive consequences. Either way, spot movement is one of the major factors affecting the fluctuation of the Spot GRP achievement ratio.

Differences due to CM Type Changes
This case can be viewed as part of the Moved Spot category. A CM Type Change is where a PT is changed to an SB in the same time frame, and vice versa (Our experience proves the latter case is rarer than the former case).

Please see the following example:

The program name in the aired time frame is the same, but the CM Type is changed from PT to SB. It is obvious that the loss is larger than the case where it has been purchased as an SB because it was estimated on the basis of airing as a PT at the point of purchase.

A rating varies depending on the time zone, day of the week and station, and often but not necessarily, the rating of an SB tends to be lower than that of a PT in the same program. Besides, a PT has its own estimated rating and an SB has its own as well, therefore if the spot is aired as an SB, there is no need to purchase using the estimated value of the PT from the start.

There is no change in the aired program, so this occurrence doesn't appear to exist. However, we have often seen situations where it is very noticeable as a factor in lowering the achievement ratio.

The Difference due to Time Frame Changes caused by Program Reformation
This one illustrates a change we are familiar with at the point of scheduling, unlike the case of an "Unpredictable Change" due to extended sports programs or the insertion of news flashes.

The change in this case means the scheduled time frame does not exist in comparison with the time frame of the Designated Week.

As we mentioned earlier, the Designated Week is used to estimate ratings, and each PT and SB has its own estimated value. However, this is under the assumption that the scheduled time frame exists within the Designated Week as well. Then, how is the estimated value figured when the time frame does not exist in the Designated Week?

There are 2 main patterns in this case. Please see the following:

In this case, the scheduled PT frame does not exist in the Designated Week. The estimated value (previous 4 weeks average HH rating) for the PT in the time frame which includes the scheduled start time (22:54), is applied on this occasion. The number can be a lower estimated in the early morning or evening to night when ratings tend to rise; however, there is no doubt that this occurrence is also one of the factors affecting the rise and fall of the achievement ratio.

Here is another pattern:

You can see that the scheduled SB frame does not exist in the Designated Week. In this case the estimated value for the PT, in the time frame which includes the scheduled start time (20:54), is applied as well. That means the SB frame is scheduled, but will be treated the same way as the PT.

In this example:
19:00-20:00 (PT), 20:00 (SB), 20:00-20:54 (PT), 20:54 (SB), 20:54-21:00 (PT), 21:00 (SB), 21:00-22:00 (PT) The estimated values of the above 7 zones are the same. It is easy to suppose that the actually achieved GRP will be largely different in the 7 zones.

The latter pattern often appears as a major factor in achievement loss.

Technically speaking, we can find out all about the "Time Frame Changes caused by Program Reformation" when the spot schedule is determined. The avoidance of spot frames with projected big losses is possible if we can change spot insertion frames.

We plan to do the break down and illustrate the reasons for the fluctuation of the achievement ratio, and describe countermeasures for achievement loss, in a latter segment next time.

Written by Toshikuni Fuji / Senior Analyst

Please contact us with questions or for more detailed information.
spiindex@spi-consultants.net