Hunt for the truth: Reasons for the decline of "TV Spot Achievement"
(3rd installment)

This is the last installment. Following the 2nd one, we would like to explain the reasons for the occurrence of differences between the Purchased GRP and the Actual Achieved GRP. Lastly, we would like to introduce some preventive measures to limit the decrease of the TV spot achievement rate.

Application Version (Last part)

The Spot Position Difference
It is often the case that several CMs are exposed consecutively in a CM break. That means there is the possibility that an achievable GRP differs depending on exposure timing.

In the case of Time, exposure order of sponsor CMs is basically rotated every broadcast segment. Therefore, it may be said that there is only a tiny difference in rating among sponsors of the same program.

On the other hand, what about spot? Please see the following example. These were the actual figures from a certain program on June 6th, 2006. There are 9 PTs from company A to I in the same spot CM break, and the greatest difference amounts to 1.7 points.

It is said that assignment of appearance order in the time frame that the spot CM can be inserted is basically not possible. However, if most of the spots are inserted in bad positions, it is not hard to anticipate that it will cause a negative effect on the achievement rate of the campaign.

The Seasonality Difference
Do you know the word HUT? HUT is the short form of "Households Using Television" and means the whole household rating that is counted as the ratio of all household viewing TV programs.

The fluctuation of HUT has seasonality. For example, the red line in the following graph shows the monthly HUT from 7 to 9 pm during the last 5 years. It is obviously low in summer and relatively higher in fall and at the beginning of the year. That is due to longer daytime hours in summer when the ratio of people at home decreases.

Additionally recognizable is the fact that the degree of seasonal influence is slightly different by time zone when the red and blue lines are compared below.

The Difference due to Programs of Other Stations / Unpredictable Over or Under Estimation
A station's spot CM can be affected by the programs of other stations when a special program is aired on these stations at the time when the spot CM is inserted. There are many cases in which high ratings are achieved, such as during the last episode of a popular drama, or especially during attention-grabbing sports programs such as the World Cup and the Olympics, and when these programs are aired on another station, the spot rating can be much lower than the planned rating.

On the contrary, there is the case where the rating of the program in which the spot will be inserted is greatly different from the usual rating, depending on the contents. This can be one factor affecting the achievement ratio.

The Difference due to Designated Week
We covered the issue of a designated week in the1st installment. The estimated ratings of all spots are fixed by the designated week, so it is like a pricelist of spots.

Let's simply review the example.

In the above case, naturally "Sample 2" is the lowest-risk setting because the rating which this spot can finally achieve is the same. In comparison with "Sample 4", the difference is 3.9 points. The amount of loss from only one spot can be easily ascertained by multiplying it by HH GRP cost at the time of purchase.

The designated week is usually selected by each campaign or month. In addition, there is a case where the same week is used for all stations in all areas or for all stations in the same area; there are also cases where a different week is used for each station, the week is selected within the last 3 months, or the week during the same period last year is selected. In any case, the designated week setting that is considered the least risky is valued.

The Additional Spot Difference
This includes many so-called free spots, and occurs in case the number of actual spots exceeds the planned numbers. It is good for advertisers, and can be a factor affecting the fluctuation of the achievement rate.

The additional spot is either offered by a station, won as the result of media agency negotiations, or is awarded as compensation for loss by sudden movement of a spot CM. It is very time and memory consuming for media companies, and is not always obtainable. The additional spot is special for many advertisers.

The Difference due to the Way of Estimate Rating
We would like to cover a more fundamental issue. This issue tends to greatly affect PTs in particular. Let's explain it in detail.

We have already mentioned that the planned rating of a purchase spot is estimated by the designated week.

In the latter part of the 1st installment, we mentioned that "the previous 4 weeks average of the program average HH rating" in the same time zone of the designated week is used to estimate the PT rating. And in the former part of the 1st one, the difference between the program average rating and the time point rating was explained. The answer is embedded here.

So, "the PT spot rating" being estimated by "the Program average rating" is problematic

Even if there are 60 minutes in a program, there are only a few minutes for PT. There are also frames for Time and SB, and a program itself occupies most of the time frame. Naturally, the rating of the program itself is higher and that of the CM break tend to be lower. Moreover, the frames for Time tends to be fixed in the positions which can acquire a high rating, therefore, there is a great difference between the program average rating that includes the program itself, the frame for Time, and the PT average rating which was calculated using the ratings of actually inserted PTs.

On the other hand, the rating of 1 minute prior to end of program is the base for the SB. In many cases, the program itself is not included in this 1 minute, and it is calculated from the point that SBs are actually exposed from the point, so it may be said that a big problem is less likely to occur.

The following is the example which was covered in the 1st installment. It is the typical example of the difference between the program rating and a PT rating.

 

If the estimated rating were 18.6 points, most of advertisers would lose their achievement rate because the actual PT average rating would be 15.5 points.

Since the difference between the program average rating and the actual spot (PT) average rating comes out in this way, some loss naturally occurs in this estimation process.

Preventive Measure Version

We have been talking about the reasons for increase and decrease of TV spot achievement rate in detail.

Finally we would like to simply introduce effective measures for prevention of achievement rate loss.

We would like to start with measures before broadcasting. If the budget and period are fixed, station selection and station share has to be determined. Here, it is effective to refer to recent rating trends and results of past campaigns. If the current rating is high but the past average is low, the achievement loss can be prevented. And selecting the stations that usually offer a lot of additional spots and avoiding these that often incur huge losses due to spot movement would be important alternatives. After selecting stations, the designated week with lowest risk needs to be confirmed.

After ordering the spot, the first schedule has to be checked. Technically, it is easy to find the error caused by the time frame change or the designated week. The risk of loss can be minimalized by asking to change spots that have loss potential to other frames. A change of spot is not always acceptable, only sometimes. Especially when there is enough time between making the first schedule and making the final schedule, there are often cases where it is acceptable.

After broadcasting, it is very important to track problems at each station. Spot movement, CM type change, spot position and so on can be found only after a campaign.

If the bad parts of the situation continue though other stations continue without problems, you should consider lowering the share from the next campaign. In addition, if problems can be pointed out in detail, the result would be very useful for an advertiser and the person in charge of the advertising agency, and it would be easier to take action to improve the situation.

You need to share the attitude of "always check thoroughly for results" with your stakeholders. Obviously, this attitude is a main premise for improving the achievement rate.

SPI's service, "TV Audit", is specialized know-how accumulated over more than 10 years as a TV spot purchase audit. The contents which we provided in all three installments explained a part of the service from a technical point of view. If you are interested in the TV Audit, please feel free to contact us.

Written by Toshikuni Fuji / Senior Analyst

Please contact us with questions or for more detailed information.
spiindex@spi-consultants.net