The Marketing ROI Trend Analysis

Based on commodity attributes, marketing activities have been put into practice so as to combine TV ads with consumer promotions. With regard to the same commodity, its marketing activity has been conducted in a similar manner with different content. Thus, one might consider the time-series changes in marketing effect and come up with a question such as “How does the last commercial message creative differ from that of the present in terms of sales? E/p>

We have a service that measures the effect of marketing activity. When making decisions in marketing activities, it is very useful to apply statistical methods and figure out how those activities contribute to objective variables such as recognition percentage and sales. Based on the client’s needs, we customize analytical methods with flexibility. Among those analytical methods we present, there is an analysis called trend analysis. This time we would like to focus on a case study of the trend analysis.

Temporal sequence changes in contribution level

We carried out an analysis utilizing one of the FMCG (Fast-Moving-Consumer-Goods) food brands, using 9 variables. The charts below show the time-series changes in the sales-contribution ratio of 4 variables (Red bars show that they are statistically significant.). If you look at the TV GRP chart at the top, in the former part of the period, you can see the highly raised sales-contribution bars. But in the latter part of the period, those bars are getting lower and lower. Base-line-sales is not the kind of sales raised by TV ads or promotion campaigns, but by the variable which shows the sales effect if the commodity concerned is sold in stores (We created this variable in this analysis.). All in all, even if you conduct the same marketing activity, the power to raise sales differs from period (the substance of marketing activities) to period.

Specifications of causes of resulting differences in effectiveness

In the last section, we have figured out there is a difference in effectiveness towards sales. Now let us move on to the next step. In this section we specify the causes which brought about the differences in effectiveness. Those figures below are the data which affect 4 variables, overlapped with the figures shown in the last section.

When you look at TV GRP, by shifting the commercial message creative from celebrity-used to non-celebrity-used, the GRP’s power to push sales up has declined. In the consumer promotion, sales contribution depends on prize content. Notably, people consume more when the prize is music than when it is a voyage around the world. Therefore, we can conclude that the prize’s practicality is more important for the consumer than its luxuriousness. From the lineups, we concluded two points: (1) if the commodity is uses a specific ingredient (light blue areas), increasing lineups bring about decreasing sales; (2) contrarily, if the commodity does not use a specific ingredient, increasing lineups bring about increasing sales. Finally, from baseline sales, we found that the increment of promotion campaigns and constantly putting newly launched commodities into market results in increasing sales. You can see that promotion campaigns show a significant influence on sales. By carrying out promotion campaigns, trial consumers increase. Once those consumers buy the goods, they become familiar with the goods and become the kind of consumers to buy the goods over and over if they are sold in stores.

Temporal sequence changes in marketing activity effectiveness

It is possible to grasp the power balance among marketing activities (not the marketing activity itself). For example, we can grasp what kind of marketing activity has the greatest impact on sales, whether the activity’s contribution to sales changes or whether there are any activities gaining power, etc. The figure below shows temporal sequence changes in power balance amongst all the variables used in the analysis. Note that the vertical axis, which can be described as the power balance pushing up sales or the contribution of all the variables, is shown in 100 percentile expression.

From this figure, we can say that the strongest and most continuous contributive marketing activity for this brand is boosting market-facing in the stores. In addition, the entry of newly launched commodities into market is gaining more influence on sales. Taking this into account, it can be said that putting commodities which do not use specific ingredients into market brings about higher sales. As the consumer promotion’s effectiveness on sales was the stronger of the other variables in the former part of the period, making the prize content more practical so as to gain more effectiveness will result in a sales increase.

As aforementioned, we can gain further knowledge by applying the temporal sequence analysis to the measurement of effectiveness in marketing activities. Not only considering the substance of marketing activity but also considering changes in market environment and in target attributes will be a further clue to the future of decision making.

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