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TVSpot purchasing cost trends in 2013 1st half and its near future trend forecast by SPI Index 2013.09.01

「TVSpot purchasing cost trend in 2013 1st half and its trend forecast by SPIIndex in the near future」

SPI, which encourages “optimizing marketing ROI” and “achieving its transparency / accountability”, analyzed TVSpot cost trends in the latest Japanese market.
It was concluded that:
1, Same level as 2012 during 2013 1st half
2, Same level or slight inflation in 2013 2nd half forecasted, and clear inflation was forecasted for 2014

However, there were huge differences in advertisers, and this gap will expanded further.

The details are as below:

1, TVSpot purchasing cost trends in 2013 1sthalf
 …Same level as 2012 during 2013 1st half, however, there were huge differences in advertisers
■The SPI Index trend = TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in Japanese market

201309_1.png
However, huge differences can be seen in advertisers, especially regarding Actual (=GRP achievement) performance.
This gap originates from differences in knowledge, monitoring systems, negotiation power and the usage / non usage of third party Media-audits for each advertiser.

2, TVSpot purchasing cost trend in the near future forecast by SPI Index
 …According to the forecast, the same level or a slightly inflated level will be maintained in the latter half of 2013, and there will be clear inflation during 2014
 …Gap between advertisers will expanded further

This forecast is due to the correlation-analysis between *TOPIX and **SPIIndex by SPI.

*Tokyo Stock Price Index (東証株価指数), commonly known as TOPIX, along with the Nikkei 225, are important stock market indexes for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) in Japan, tracking all domestic companies of the exchange's First Section. It is calculated and published by the TSE. As of 1 February 2011, there were 1,669 companies listed in the First Section of the TSE, and the market value for the index at the time was \197.4 trillion.
**SPIIndex is the TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in the Japanese market, calculated by SPI (methodology to be detailed later).

●SPI Index Forecast analysis from the correlation-analysis between TOPIX and SPI Index by SPI
201309_2.png
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SPIIndex TVSpot purchasing cost trend forecast
:Data & Methodology

●What is the “SPI Index” for Cost Analysis ?

・Definition of SPIIndex
・1st step=SPIIndex-basecost

SPIIndex-basecost(=All advertiser’s average) = Total TVSpot sales ÷ Total TVSpot GRP
・2nd step= Adjusting “SPIIndex-basecost” for each Spot-buying condition by “SPI’s datapool”
SPIIndex-basecost×SPI-adjustmentINDEX(due to SPI-datapool from Y1995/over100advertisers & 1,000cases)

SPIIndex(TVSpot cost benchmark for each TVSpot buying condition)

●SPI Index forecast, Methodology

  • Indexes used for the trend forecast: SPI Index and TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index)
    SPI found a strong correlation between SPI Index and TOPIX.
  • A key finding in SPI’s analysis is that the trend of the SPI Index follows that of TOPIX 9 months later.
    The analysis indicates that the general business market trend that appears in such indexes as TOPIX could affect advertising spending, and the trend is reflected in the SPI Index that showcases the balance between the supply and demand in the overall advertising industry.
  • SPI Index & TOPIX show the weighted trend that excludes seasonality and noise via SPI’s analytic/mathematical-modeling.
  • Below is the graph of SPI-analysis on the correlation between the SPI Index and TOPIX
201309_3.png

Shiro Kokue
Senior consultant

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E-Mail: spi.index@spi-consultants.net
Homepage: http://www.spi-consultants.com/en/

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…This report and its contents are NOT officially guaranteed by SPI, though SPI may deem it worthy according to reliable information, resources & methodology.
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