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Latest TVSpot purchasing cost trends and its trend forecast by SPIINDEX for Y20172016.11.18

SPI, a pioneer of strategic/statistical media planning/analysis & Media buying audit sector in Japan, encourages “optimizing marketing ROI” and “achieving transparency / accountability”,
has analyzed the TVSpot cost trend in the latest Japanese market, according to “SPIINDEX = TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in the Japanese market”.

●What is the “SPIINDEX” for Cost Analysis ?
…SPIINDEX is the “TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in the Japanese market”.
…It is originally developed by SPI, which is referring to “Sales and GRP of All TV Spots” and “SPI’s TV Spot cost-datapool (mining media buying costs of over 100 advertisers from Y1995)”

It has been concluded that:

  • Costs in Y2016/1-9 rise totally +2% against the previous year
  • Inflation ratio in Y2016/1-5 was high, however, it has been mildly down from the mid of Y2016
  • Costs in Y2016/10-Y2017/8 are forecasted to be deflated against previous year, and that might cancel the inflation-ratio occurred from the end of Y2015 to latest

*However, there are huge differences in advertisers by area and station.

1, Costs in Y2016/1-9 rise totally +2% against the previous year
2, Inflation ratio in Y2016/1-5 was high, however, it is mildly down from the mid of Y2016

■The trend of SPIINDEX = TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in the Japanese market

201611_1.png
201611_2.png

3, Costs in Y2016/10-Y2017/8 are forecasted to be deflated against previous year, and that might cancel the inflation-ratio occurred on the end of Y2015 to latest

●SPIINDEX forecast, Methodology

  • Indices used for the trend forecast: SPIINDEX and TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index)
    SPI found a strong correlation between the SPIINDEX and the TOPIX.
  • A key finding in SPI’s analysis is that the trend of the SPIINDEX follows that of TOPIX 9 months later.
    The analysis indicates that the general business market trend that appears in such indexes as TOPIX could affect advertising spending, and the trend is reflected in the SPIINDEX that showcases the balance between the demand and the supply in the overall advertising industry.
  • SPIINDEX & TOPIX show the weighted trend that excludes seasonality and noise by SPI’s analytic/mathematical-modeling.
  • See the graph of SPI-analysis regarding the correlation between the SPIINDEX and TOPIX

201611_3.png
●SPIINDEX Forecast analysis with the correlation-analysis between TOPIX and SPIINDEX by SPI 201611_4.png


Shiro Kokue: Senior consultant
Ayumi Watanabe: Senior analyst / Assistant Manager of Public-Relation

<contact>
E-Mail: spi.index@spi-consultants.net
Homepage: http://www.spi-consultants.com/en/

<Notice>
…This report and its contents are NOT officially guaranteed by SPI, though SPI may deem it worthy according to reliable information, resources & methodology.
…This information is confidential and belongs to the copyright of SPI. Any reference to this information is to include ‘according to SPI’