Latest TVSpot purchasing cost trends and its trend forecast by SPIIndex in 2016 1st half

SPI, a pioneer of strategic/statistical media planning/analysis & Media buying audit sector in Japan, encourages “optimizing marketing ROI” and “achieving transparency / accountability”,
has analyzed the TVSpot cost trend in the latest Japanese market, according to “SPIIndex = TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in the Japanese market”.

●What is the “SPIIndex” for Cost Analysis ?
…SPIIndex is the “TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in the Japanese market”.
…It is originally developed by SPI, which is referring to “Sales and GRP of All TV Spots” and “SPI’s TV Spot cost-datapool (mining media buying costs of over 100 advertisers)”

It has been concluded that:

• 1% deflation in 2015 1st-half after the end of 2014
• Costs in 2015 2nd half are forecasted to remain at the same level or slight deflation
• Costs in 2016 1st half are forecasted to be a little bit inflation against previous year

＊However, there are huge differences in advertisers by area and station.

1, 1% deflation in 2015 1st-half after the end of 2014

■The trend of SPIIndex = TVSpot cost benchmark (Market average) in the Japanese market

2, Costs in 2015 2nd half are forecasted to remain at the same level or slight deflation
3, Costs in 2016 1st half are forecasted to be a little bit inflation against previous year

●SPI Index forecast, Methodology

• Indices used for the trend forecast: SP IIndex and TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index)
  SPI found a strong correlation between the SPIIndex and the TOPIX.
• A key finding in SPI’s analysis is that the trend of the SPIIndex follows that of TOPIX 9 months later.
  The analysis indicates that the general business market trend that appears in such indexes as TOPIX could affect advertising spending, and the trend is reflected in the SPIIndex that showcases the balance between the demand and the supply in the overall advertising industry.
• SPIIndex & TOPIX show the weighted trend that excludes seasonality and noise by SPI’s analytic/mathematical-modeling.
• See the graph of SPI-analysis regarding the correlation between the SPIIndex and TOPIX

●SPI Index Forecast analysis with the correlation-analysis between TOPIX and SPI Index by SPI

Shiro Kokue: Senior consultant
Ayumi Watanabe: Assistant analyst / Assistant Manager of Public-Relation

Please contact us with questions or for more detailed information.
spiindex@spi-consultants.net